Monday, 17 December 2012

Analysis: Boehner opens door to tax hikes, shifts fiscal cliff talks

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner's offer to accept a tax rate increase for the wealthiest Americans knocks down a key Republican road block to a deal resolving the year-end "fiscal cliff."

The question now boils down to price - which income levels, what rates and what's offered in return. Such major questions, still unanswered so close to the end of the year suggest, however, that no surge toward an agreement is immminent.

With just over two weeks before the fiscal cliff's $600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts are triggered, threatening a new recession, there is little time to craft a comprehensive deal that will satisfy both Democrats and Republicans.

Until the latest offer, made on Friday, Boehner had insisted on extending all of the Bush era tax rates, resisting President Obama's demand to let the marginal rates rise on income above $250,000. A rising chorus of business executives also had urged Republicans to agree to this.

Although the White House has not accepted Boehner's gambit, which media reports have said includes a $1 million tax-hike threshold, it could push negotiations away from entrenched, ideological positions.

"Boehner has now accepted the premise of higher rates. So now we're just arguing over details. I think it's a significant step," said Greg Valliere, chief political strategist at Potomac Research Group.

A framework deal spelling out tax revenue and spending cut targets to be finalized in the new year could be possible, Valliere said.

"Boehner's offer to allow tax rates to go up for taxpayers earning over $1 million fundamentally transforms fiscal cliff negotiations," added Sean West, U.S. policy analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.

In a note to clients, West wrote that it signals, significantly, that Boehner ultimately believes a deal to avoid the cliff is still possible.

"The political burden is now shifted back to the president, who must be willing to take on his party in order to get a deal Boehner can ultimately pass. We do not think the president will overreach: Obama will work with Boehner to get to a deal."

There are still several critical elements to a deal besides a tax rate increase on the wealthy, including Republican demands to cut spending on entitlements.

Changes to the expensive Medicare and Medicaid health care programs for the elderly and the poor could be central to any deal, which must also include an increase in the federal debt limit needed by the end of February.

DEMANDS ENTITLEMENT CUTS

Boehner conditioned his tax rate increase offer on Obama agreeing to cuts in entitlement spending.

Many Republican lawmakers want to raise the eligibility age on Medicare from 65 to 67. They also want to add more means testing to Medicare, making wealthier retirees pay more for their care.

Currently, Medicare does have some means testing, charging higher premiums for coverage of doctors visits and prescription drugs to individuals earning more than $85,000 and married couples earning more than $170,000. Only about 5 percent of recipients pay these higher premiums.

Thus far, Obama has offered only about $400 billion in 10-year entitlement savings, mostly through small adjustments in reining in health care costs - not fundamental changes such as raising eligibility ages.

And just as Boehner faces opposition in his own party to raising any tax rates, Obama faces opposition to cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security from Democrats, who pledged in election campaigns they would protect these programs.

A major bloc of congressional Democrats has already signaled they will not accept major cutbacks in Medicare as part of any fiscal cliff deal.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California and Maryland Representative Chris Van Hollen are among the high ranking Democrats in the House who in recent days have come out forcefully defending against raising the age for eligibility for Medicare from the current 65 to 67 years of age.

"Given the level of savings that is being talked about from Medicare, you can't get it all from providers and drug makers," said Paul Heldman, an analyst at Potomac Research, which tracks Washington policy for investors.

"So Opponents of raising the eligibility age have reason to believe beneficiaries will take some sort of hit if a mega-deal is cut," he said.

If Republicans are not successful in securing entitlement program cuts in exchange for a tax-rate increase on the wealthy, they are adamant about using a debt-limit increase as leverage to overhaul Social Security and Medicare.

The U.S. Treasury expects to reach its $16.4 trillion statutory debt cap by year-end, and will exhaust its remaining borrowing capacity around mid-February, risking a potential default.

Louisiana Republican Representative John Fleming, a member of the conservative Tea Party caucus who has never voted to increase the debt ceiling, said he would support a debt limit hike if it were part of a deal to make Medicare and Social Security sustainable.

The pace of activity could pick up the coming week.

House Republicans were told to prepare for a possible weekend session next week, potentially interrupting travel plans for the long Christmas holiday weekend.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor scheduled "possible legislation related to expiring provisions of law," a reference to the expiring tax cuts, for the end of the week, portending a weekend session. Cantor has said the House would meet through the Christmas holidays and beyond.

(Additional reporting by Thomas Ferraro, Richard Cowan and Kim Dixon; editing by Fred Barbash and Todd Eastham)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-boehner-opens-door-tax-hikes-shifts-u-202143843--business.html

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Sunday, 16 December 2012

Marsha Temlock: Back To The Nest after Divorce

Today it is estimated that about a third of homeowners are currently putting out the welcome mat for boomerang children or aging parents. Oddly enough, the family domicile tends to be expanding rather than shrinking. That includes making space for an unexpected guest: the son or daughter seeking a safe harbor when his or her marriage is in trouble.

It is not uncommon for parents to find themselves opening the sleeper couch for what they hope will be a temporary stay. While most want to do whatever they can to help their children get back on their feet, but they do not necessarily want to be "Mom" or "Dad" all over again. Grown men and women who have been on their own would likely only seek their parents out as a last resort, however, in tough economic times, more and more sons and daughters (with or without grandchildren) do not have the luxury of maintaining two households and are landing on their parents' doorsteps.

Parents are expected to provide unconditional support and, when appropriate, financial relief until the divorce settlement is hammered out. What most children do not realize is that their parents are struggling with their own recovery issues after the split and having a son or daughter living with them makes it that much more difficult, especially if a parent is having trouble accepting the divorce decision.

The road to recovery from a child's divorce is bumpy for everyone involved. Therefore, the best advice is not to extend the journey any longer than is absolutely necessary. It is a good idea to set a flexible timeline how long the child is planning to stay from the get-go. (Note I said flexible.) If your adult child is fragile, a plan can be misinterpreted as your pulling the welcome rug out from under. Also, if you know your child is only going to be with you for a few weeks, I would let things ride.

Another suggestion is to be up front about divvying household duties and expenses for food, gasoline, etc. This is, after all, Mom and Dad's place. The returning child is not a house guest with bed, board and maid service included.

Typically, an adult child will seek the security of home temporarily because he or she needs the anchor of family right after a marriage crashes. A son may need a place to hang out until he finds another arrangement. Newly separated husbands often run bases on their friends' sofa beds until they finally strike out. Daughters tend to stay longer, especially if there are children, consuming lots of hot tea while they cry on Mom's shoulder. In rarer cases, it's the in-law who needs a place to stay. I know of one case where a son-in-law practically had to be pried off his mother-in-law's sofa. The in-law was his replacement parent and the two were very close during the marriage. The daughter wanted him out but he had no place to go. The mother-in-law, after first checking it out with her daughter, agreed to let him stay, but when Al became a fixture, it was time to have him leave.

There is a lot of retrofitting that has to take place when an adult child's marriage ends. The newly separated or divorced mother is redefining her role primarily as wife and mother when she is no longer married; the son who was once husband and father is no longer a husband, and often spending fewer hours with his children than when he was married. He may devote more hours to work or going out with his buddies.

Understandably, this is a dizzying time for parents who watch from the sidelines while their child is coping with all the changes. Parents are trying to bind wounds and build a new family structure to replace the old one. It is natural to feel ambivalent about a child's homecoming, but there are things you can do to make it less stressful. I offer lots of tips in my book, "Your Child's Divorce: What to Expect ... What You Can Do."

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Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/marsha-temlock/back-to-the-nest-after-di_b_2235771.html

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